Average CO2 emissions from new Stellantis vehicles registered in the European Union continue to fall, but the group still sits well above its target and its theoretical exposure keeps increasing. In its latest update, Dataforce estimates a potential €1.36 billion, or about $1.55 billion, cost for Stellantis under EU CO2 rules based on registrations from January 2025 through August 2026. In April, the estimate stood at €1.25 billion, or roughly $1.42 billion.
Stellantis CO2 exposure rises to $1.55 billion despite lower emissions
Across the 20 months covered by the analysis, Stellantis registered about 2.8 million cars with average declared emissions of 101.3 g/km. Four months earlier, the figure stood at 102.1 g/km, so the group has made progress. However, emissions still exceed Stellantis’ specific target of 96.2 g/km, while additional registrations continue to increase the theoretical amount.
The often-cited 93.6 g/km figure represents the average EU target for new cars rather than an identical limit for every automaker. Each manufacturer receives a specific target that also reflects characteristics of its registered fleet. At the end of the compliance period, any remaining excess triggers a charge of €95, or about $108, for every gram of CO2 above the target, multiplied by the number of affected vehicles.
Stellantis has not received a €1.36 billion fine. Rules approved in 2025 measure compliance across the full 2025-2027 three-year period instead of judging each year separately. Stellantis therefore still has time to lower the average emissions of the new cars it sells. Automakers can also form CO2 pools and combine their fleets for compliance purposes.
Dataforce currently gives only Volkswagen a larger theoretical deficit, with its estimate rising from €2.3 billion to €2.75 billion, or from about $2.62 billion to $3.13 billion. Automakers with much more heavily electrified fleets sit at the opposite end of the ranking. Tesla shows a theoretical surplus of around €3 billion, or $3.41 billion, BYD about €2.25 billion, or $2.56 billion, and Geely roughly €1.8 billion, or $2.05 billion. These figures also come from the simulation and do not represent money those companies have already collected through agreements with other manufacturers.
The key figure to watch in the coming months will be the gap between Stellantis’ average emissions and its specific target. The drop from 102.1 to 101.3 g/km shows progress, but a significant gap remains.
Only after the end of 2027, once the full three-year results and any pooling agreements enter the calculation, will it become possible to determine whether Stellantis actually owes a penalty and how large that payment might be.
