Tesla remains one of the most influential names in the electric vehicle industry, but its dominance is increasingly under pressure. The company led by Elon Musk is facing a fast-changing competitive landscape that is eroding its market share.
While EV sales have been Tesla’s main revenue driver so far, the company is now being pushed to look ahead, channeling resources into autonomous driving and robotics to secure its long-term growth.
Some investment agencies believe that robotaxis could transform Tesla’s entire business model. Their forecasts suggest that by 2029, as much as 86% of the company’s profits could come from this segment, potentially driving Tesla’s stock price to $2,600, a staggering 600% jump from current levels. However, achieving that goal won’t be easy. Tesla would need to shift from being primarily an EV manufacturer to becoming a global powerhouse in autonomous ride-hailing. The challenge is that this transformation comes at a time of weakness.
In 2024, Tesla reported its first-ever annual delivery decline, with 1.79 million units sold, down 1% from the prior year. The situation worsened in 2025, with deliveries plunging 13% in just the first half. Revenue dropped 14% and earnings per share collapsed by 31%. Meanwhile, competitors like China’s BYD are surging ahead with lower-cost models.
In Europe, Tesla’s sales sank 40% in July, while BYD soared 225%. Musk is betting heavily on the Cybercab, an autonomous robotaxi expected to enter production in 2026, fully reliant on Tesla’s FSD software. But the system still hasn’t been approved for unsupervised use in the U.S., a major roadblock. On top of that, Tesla will face strong rivals like Uber, which already serves 180 million monthly users and has formed alliances with more than 20 autonomous driving companies.
But some projections appear overly ambitious. Going from Wall Street’s 2025 revenue estimate of $93 billion to the forecast of $1.2 trillion by 2029 would require explosive growth that borders on unrealistic. Expecting Tesla shares to soar by 600% in just four years looks more like a risky bet than a safe investment.
