A Dataforce study cited by MilanoFinanza quantifies for the first time the potential economic impact of CAFE regulations on the main European automakers between January 2025 and April 2026. The analysis outlines a scenario in which Volkswagen and Stellantis rank among the groups most exposed to the risk of multibillion-euro penalties.
The regulation sets an average limit of 93.6 g/km of CO2 for new cars registered in the European Union and imposes a penalty of €95 for every excess gram, multiplied by the number of vehicles sold. This mechanism turns every delay in electrification into a direct cost on the balance sheet.
Stellantis risks €1.25 billion hit under European CO2 rules
According to Dataforce simulations, the European industry accumulated €12.8 billion in potential liabilities during the period analyzed, compared with €9.7 billion in credits, leaving a negative balance of more than €3 billion.
Volkswagen shows the highest theoretical exposure, estimated at around €2.3 billion. Stellantis, with nearly 2.3 million cars registered in Europe and an estimated average emissions figure of 102.1 g/km against a target of 96.2 g/km, would accumulate a potential liability of around €1.25 billion.
The scenario changes completely for automakers with a high share of EV sales. Tesla would rank among the main beneficiaries of the system, with around €2.3 billion in theoretical credits, followed by BYD with €1.6 billion, Geely with €1.4 billion and Leapmotor with more than €500 million. This imbalance creates a dynamic in which traditional automakers may need to buy credits from electrified rivals, effectively transferring financial resources to their direct competitors.
For Stellantis, the joint venture with Leapmotor takes on a role that goes beyond commercial diversification. The Chinese partner’s EV volumes help lower the group’s overall emissions average in the European market.
However, regulatory pressure requires an acceleration that cannot depend on a single brand. Antonio Filosa’s Stellantis will need to quickly increase the weight of electric models across its entire brand portfolio without losing competitiveness in segments where demand still favors combustion and hybrid powertrains.
