Industry experts warn that the US electric vehicle market may face a sharp slowdown at the end of September, when the $7,500 federal incentives expire. Brands like Tesla, General Motors, and Ford could see a steep drop in sales, while some competitors are already adopting alternative strategies to sustain demand.
Tesla announced that starting September 21, lease payments will rise: the Model 3 will increase by $50 per month, while the Model Y will go up by $80. To lock in the current rates, customers must not only place an order but also finalize the lease before the September 30 deadline, as Tesla investor and influencer Sawyer Merritt noted on X.
This shift comes after the Trump administration ended the EV tax credit program, originally extended through 2032 under Biden. The expiration date of September 30 has triggered a buying rush, but analysts predict a sharp contraction right after. Karl Brauer of iSeeCars.com estimates EV market share, 9.1% in July, could fall below 4%, with a gradual recovery expected only by 2026.
Tesla has tried to boost demand with temporary offers, including a $1,000 discount for military personnel, teachers, students, and first responders, plus a one-month trial of Full Self-Driving (but the one with supervision) and the option to transfer FSD capability between vehicles. However, Elon Musk emphasized that only cars delivered before September 30 will qualify for the tax break.
Meanwhile, Lucid is taking a different approach. With the launch of the Gravity SUV, the company will offer a $7,500 “Lucid Advantage Credit” to eligible customers leasing the model between October and December, effectively replacing the lost federal incentive. Investor sentiment, however, remains weak. On Stocktwits, Tesla discussions were rated “extremely bearish” and market data confirms the trend: since the beginning of 2025, Tesla stock has dropped about 17%.
