Fitch Ratings has revised Stellantis‘ outlook from “Stable” to “Negative”, while confirming the long-term rating (IDR) and senior unsecured instruments rating at ‘BBB’. All ratings were subsequently withdrawn for commercial reasons. The outlook deterioration reflects uncertainties related to the execution of the restructuring plan, together with potential cash outflows necessary for its implementation.
Fitch cuts Stellantis outlook: Negative prospects for margins and liquidity
According to Fitch, the group’s free cash flow will remain negative even in 2025, following a cash burn of approximately 10 billion euros in 2024 that reduced maneuvering room relative to the net leverage to EBITDA threshold. Further cash outflows could become necessary to achieve long-term strategic objectives, although the agency expects a recovery in operating profitability in the short term.
Despite the downgrade, Fitch recognizes Stellantis has a solid business profile, supported by a competitive brand portfolio, but emphasizes the strong erosion of profitability in the first half of 2025. The impact of extraordinary measures, including write-downs, program cancellations and restructuring, resulted in an outlay of 3.3 billion euros and a net loss of 2.3 billion.
The agency estimates slow improvement in the second half of 2025, with EBIT margins around 2%, and a return above 4% expected only in 2026 thanks to the arrival of new models and more favorable pricing conditions. However, strong uncertainties remain related to US tariffs, which could cost up to 1.5 billion in 2025, and significant exposure to the North American market, now more vulnerable.
Fitch also highlights a weakening of the financial leverage buffer and growing cash flow pressures, in a context where Stellantis is called upon to support massive investments for the electric transition and brand relaunch. While remaining consistent with the “BBB” rating, the group now presents a more fragile balance sheet structure compared to German competitors, due to deteriorating liquidity.
In the first half of 2025, Stellantis recorded revenues of 74.3 billion euros, but with adjusted operating profit of just 0.5 billion. Industrial activities cash flow was negative by 2.3 billion, while free cash flow reached -3 billion. The stock, after opening lower on August 5 at Piazza Affari, then reduced losses during the morning. Since the beginning of the year, it remains down more than 40%.
