A late-September fire that tore through Novelis’s aluminum plant in Oswego, New York, is sending shockwaves across the US auto industry, and Ford Motor Company may be the hardest hit.
According to The Wall Street Journal, the facility, which produces nearly half of all aluminum sheets used by US automakers, will remain partially shut down until early next year. That’s bad news for Ford, the plant’s largest customer, which relies on Novelis aluminum to build the body panels of its top-selling F-Series pickup trucks, lighter, tougher, and more corrosion-resistant than traditional steel.
The fire broke out on September 16, damaging the hot-rolling mill, essentially the plant’s beating heart, where solid aluminum ingots are turned into sheets for automakers.
Ford issued a carefully worded statement saying it’s “working closely with Novelis to identify alternative sources and minimize disruption”. Dearborn’s supply chain team won’t be getting much sleep anytime soon. Sources close to production have hinted that F-Series output could face some interruptions, though the full impact remains uncertain.
Analysts estimate that the disruption could cut up to $800 million from Ford’s 2025 earnings before interest and taxes, assuming a 20% drop in fourth-quarter pickup production. Financial platform Seeking Alpha echoed the concern, warning that the setback could dent Ford’s full-year forecasts.
Meanwhile, other Novelis clients, GM, Stellantis, Toyota, Rivian, and Nissan, have struck a more optimistic tone, saying they expect little to no disruption thanks to diversified supplier networks.
Novelis, owned by India’s Hindalco Industries, said it’s “working around the clock” to repair the damaged rolling mill and has activated its global network to keep customers supplied. But the reality is clear: when half of Detroit’s aluminum supply goes up in smoke, the whole industry feels the heat. Ford insists everything’s under control, but for now, the F-Series might just be getting a little too light for comfort.
