Once again, Elon Musk has bravely recalibrated his famously achievable timelines for Tesla’s Robotaxi service. The goal has dramatically shrunk from conquering “half the US population by the end of 2025” to the now “modest” ambition of launching in “eight to ten US metropolitan areas” within the next two months. In a development that surprises zero observers of the autonomous driving space, even this drastically reduced target is reportedly running into significant, utterly predictable roadblocks.
According to a new report, Tesla is failing on the most basic front: paperwork. The company has allegedly yet to complete the necessary regulatory filings to even begin offering Robotaxi rides in two of the three key expansion states, Arizona and Nevada. The third state, Florida, is predictably viewed as the “easy win”, presumably because its flexible regulations align perfectly with the strategy of prioritizing sensational launches over actual regulatory oversight.
Meanwhile, back in Tesla’s spiritual home, California, the company’s much-vaunted “Robotaxi” service remains a highly supervised joke. The state’s current permission structure mandates a human safety driver sitting, bored, behind the wheel, as it only allows a human to “drive a traditional vehicle”.
Achieving true autonomy, with or without a safety driver, requires a separate autonomous vehicle permit in California. This is the very same permit that Tesla’s chief competitor, Alphabet’s Waymo, already possesses and actively uses for driverless operations in San Francisco and Los Angeles.
In a display of regulatory avoidance that defines the Tesla approach, the company has not even applied for this critical permit. Why? Because doing so would likely force the disclosure of critical safety data and embarrassing disengagement figures that Tesla is famously unwilling to make public.
These bureaucratic and regulatory delays are in direct and hilarious conflict with Musk’s grand vision. He has publicly declared that Robotaxi success is “fundamental” to his plan to morph Tesla into a robotics and autonomous driving superpower. This vision is, of course, inextricably linked to his unprecedented new pay package, where shareholder payout hinges on astronomical milestones like getting 1 million Robotaxis into service and driving Tesla’s market cap to a fantastical $8.5 trillion.
For now, the service continues to limp along using a modified Model Y. The promised “Cybercab” isn’t due for mass production until Q2 2026.
